Your Weekly Market Prep (9/29)

Bullish September, Momentum into October?

Welcome back to your weekly trade plan with the Dividend Journal. If you’re new here, welcome in! The Dividend Journal’s weekly trade plan highlights all the information YOU need to be prepared for this upcoming week in the stock market.

This week’s plan in a snapshot:

• JOLTS on Tuesday, and NFP on Friday

• Q4 Bullish Seasonality

• PTON 0.00%↑ , JD 0.00%↑ , and HIMS 0.00%↑ on watch this week

Last Week Earnings Watchlist Recap:

MU – Q4 FY25
- Revenue +46.0% YoY (~ $11.32B vs. $7.75B)

- EPS (non‑GAAP) of $3.03 vs. $1.18 prior year, > +150% growth

- Strong guidance: Q1 FY26 revenue ~ $12.5B

COST – Q4 FY25
- Revenue +8.0% YoY (net sales $84.4B vs. $78.2B)

- Membership fee income +14.0% YoY (membership model continues to scale)

- Renewal / membership trends healthy: paid memberships +6.3% YoY, renewal rates remain >90%

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Red Folder News:

We have a jam packed week coming up with lots of Fed speakers and medium plus red folder data. The red folder news is bolded. Let’s take a look.

Monday, Sep 29

6:30 AM - FOMC Member Waller Speaks

9:00 AM - Pending Home Sales

12:30 PM - FOMC Musalem and Williams Speaks

Tuesday, Sep 30

5:00 AM FOMC Jefferson Speaks

8:00 AM FOMC Collins Speaks

9:00 AM JOLTS Job Openings

12:00 PM FOMC Goolsbee Speaks

Wednesday, Oct 01

All day - OPEC Meetings

9:00 AM - ISM PMI

Thursday, Oct 02

7:30 AM - Unemployment Claims

9:30 AM - FOMC Logan Speaks

Friday, Oct 03

7:30 AM Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate, and Avg Hourly Earnings

9:00 AM ISM Services PMI

Expect Fed speakers to cause some intraday volatility but overall market trend will be determined by JOLTS on Tuesday and the double heavy hitter of NFP and Unemployment Rate on Friday.

As usual, the earnings coming up this week:

NKE 0.00%↑ is on watch for their performance this quarter.

• Analysts are expecting an EPS YoY decline of -60% to 0.28 and a revenue decline of 5% YoY to $11B.

• Tariff headwinds still need to addressed and how much they can mitigate

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Market Update

Our SPY 0.00%↑ target from last week of around 668 was essentially hit this week. Again, it’s still crazy to me that we have had such a strong October. But broken down, this all makes sense. The Fed cutting while the economy is deemed relatively stable is bullish for the impending future. Companies will generate more revenue, and have higher margins despite potential tariff troubles.

We also saw another daily 21EMA tap on the markets, which has proven again to be a strong support level. Until the 21EMA is broken with heavy selling, I don’t see much downside in store for the markets. Even if we do get the 21EMA broken on high selling pressure, I foresee more chop/consolidation than a larger correction.