Your Weekly Market Prep (10/06)

Govt Shutdown Continues

Welcome back to your weekly trade plan with the Dividend Journal. If you’re new here, welcome in! The Dividend Journal’s weekly trade plan highlights all the information YOU need to be prepared for this upcoming week in the stock market.

This week’s plan in a snapshot:

• Delay in data from govt shutdown

• Bitcoin new ATHs!

• ABNB, GOOGL, SHOP and SNOW on watch this week

Last Week Earnings Watchlist Recap:

NKE– Q4 FY25
- Q4 revenue -12% YoY (~$11.1B vs ~$12.6B)

- Net income –44% YoY (FY): ~$3.2B in FY25 vs ~$5.7B prior year

- Outlook on tariff impact of ~$1B–$1.5B expected; Nike calling Q4 “the toughest quarter” from its turnaround plan

We are once again approaching earnings season towards end of October.

For this upcoming week, we are keeping DAL 0.00%↑’s earnings on watch.

Red Folder News:

(Tentative due to Government shutdown)

Wednesday, October 8

FOMC Meeting Minutes 1PM

Thursday, October 9

Unemployment Claims 7:30AM

Fed Chair Powell Speaks 7:30AM

Friday, October 10

UoM Consumer Sentiment 9:00AM

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Market Update & Govt Shutdown

Expect this upcoming week to be rather choppy and probably a consolidation period as data is limited until the government reopens. I still believe we should be cautious going into the rest of October especially if we don’t get any more data going into FOMC on October 28-29. Thus, we are cautious in October and will wait for the next Fed meeting to determine how bullish we should be going into November.

Bank earnings and large cap tech earnings will give more insight in consumer sentiment and the strength of AI demand. This combined with FOMC at the end of October should give us a very volatile end the month, which will dictate the direction of November.

From the 21EMA bounce we talked about last week, the markets have made new ATHs despite a government shutdown. The U.S. federal government on October 1 shut down after Congress failed to pass appropriations legislation or a stopgap funding extension. The root cause is a partisan impasse over spending levels, and health care subsidies. Investor confidence can take a hit during government shutdowns but during the 35 day shutdown in 2018, the S&P 500 rallied +11%.

The average length of a shutdown is only around 8 days and the S&P 500 has ended higher one year after a shutdown in 86% of cases.

The NYMO shows curling towards positive and this tells us that other sectors in the market are playing some catchup while the leaders pullback a bit like NVDA 0.00%↑ and AAPL 0.00%↑. If there will be another leg up, I am keeping a close eye on NYMO and want to see this -3.71 print on Friday flip positive to 10-20. This would tell us that there is buying in the market as a whole instead of a few leaders dragging us upwards.