Your Weekly Market Prep

Week of Sept 22

Welcome back to your weekly trade plan with the Dividend Journal. If you’re new here, welcome in! This weekly trade plan will highlight all the information YOU need to be prepared for this upcoming week in the stock market.

This week’s post in a snapshot:

• PCE data on Friday

• Rate cut update + markets after cuts

• SOUN 0.00%↑, SERV 0.00%↑, AFRM 0.00%↑, and VRT 0.00%↑ on watch this week

  

Last Week Earnings Watchlist Recap:

FDS 0.00%↑ (FactSet) – Q4 FY25
Revenue +6.2% YoY, Annual subscription value (ASV) +5.7% YoY showing steady client/user expansion.

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FDX 0.00%↑ (FedEx) – Q1 FY26
Revenue +3% YoY, Adj. op. margin up slightly to 5.8%; net income +2.3% YoY.

EPS beat at $3.83 (adj.); reinstated FY26 guide: EPS $17.20–$19.00. Outlook steady but macro/trade risk lingers.

Red Folder News:

9/23 - Flash Manufacturing PMI 8:45 AM

9/25 - Final GDP q/q & Unemployment Claims 7:30 AM

9/26 - Core PCE Price Index m/m 7:30 AM

Earnings this week, courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

The Dividend Journal’s top watches are: MU 0.00%↑, and COST 0.00%↑.

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🏛️ FOMC Rate Cut Recap

As projected by The Dividend Journal, the Fed cut by 25 basis points. The narrative shift has been confirmed as Powell acknowledged there are clearer signs of disinflation and softening in labor markets. The tone was less about fighting inflation, more about managing risk into a slowdown.

Here’s an interesting graph showing the strength of the Dow after the first cut with no recession in next year. An absolute ripper of an uptrend. Just like how September hasn’t been as bearish as usual, we can only take this with a grain of salt, but things are looking solid so far.

The market is now anticipating two more rate cuts into the end of the year. Contrary to our belief, markets have been resilient and have hit fresh new ATHs post-FOMC. It’s been so shocking to me that September so far has been so positive and I will admit that I was wrong about a sell the news on the rate cut.

I believe that the market is experiencing buying pressure to account for the ability to be more risk on as the Fed might cut two more times before year end. It seems the market is anticipating these cuts aren’t signs of more unwinding, but rather economic expansion. Cuts will allow businesses to refinance and borrow more money. This will stimulate more growth and as companies outperform estimates, and the end result is the market going up in anticipation.