Weekly Watchlist Oct 27: FOMC, Tech Earnings, and Trade Talks

Why this week could be setting us up for a strong November

Welcome back to another Weekly Trade Plan with The Dividend Journal! If this is your first time here, great timing. This newsletter is your one stop briefing to stay ahead of the market and step into the week fully prepared.

🎯 Initial Thoughts + TLDR

Last week played out almost to the T: rangebound price action until a break to the upside past the China trade tension candle. With FOMC and big tech earnings coming up, we’re approaching a potential hot inflection point in the markets. This final week of October could set the tone for a strong November, which has usually favored the bulls.

This week’s plan in a snapshot:

1. Dovish/neutral Fed tone + expected 25 BP rate cut

2. Tech earning beats + strong guidance

3. More progress on China trade deal

4. LRCX 0.00%↑ & AVGO 0.00%↑ on watch to trade this week

📰 Key News to Watch

1. FOMC Rate Cut Decision

   Everyone’s eyes are on the Fed this week where they are expected to cut rates by another 25 basis points on Wednesday, October 29. The government is still shutdown so any comments on how the Federal Reserve will react at the December FOMC can influence the market. Any hints towards more caution can cause a pullback in the market.

2. China & US Tensions Easing

   This Sunday, October 26 saw the Chinese Vice Minister of Commerce announcing that the US and China are ready to make a trade deal after only two days of negotiations.

3. Big Tech Earnings

   So far, the big earning reports have come as in-line with expectations. This upcoming week, we have a STACKED earning schedule. The market will continue to monitor AI spending, growth slowing and capex burdens. Any misses or poor guidance will lead to a downside reaction for any earning reports. See below for the full earnings schedule.

4. Economic Data

   On top of FOMC, we MIGHT have data coming in if the government resumes operations. Because of limited data, the data that does come out may hold more weight since that is all we have to gauge the health of the economy.

📅 Key Earnings & Economic Calendar

As always, courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Last week we were interested in the earning reports from: KO -0.33%↓, NFLX -1.56%↓, TSLA -2.99%↓, IBM 8.45%↑, and INTC -4.75%↓.

KO 0.00%↑:

• EPS: $0.87 (non-GAAP)

• Revenue: $12.54 billion

• Takeaway: Strong margin expansion despite currency and volume headwinds. Showing that pricing power is working, but topline growth remains modest.

NFLX 0.00%↑:

• EPS: $5.87

• Revenue: $11.51 billion (+17% YoY)

• Takeaway: Revenue growth is solid, but a surprise $619M Brazil tax hit dragged earnings and rattled investors.

TSLA 0.00%↑:

• EPS: $0.50 (non-GAAP)

• Revenue: $28.1 billion (+12% YoY)

• Takeaway: Record sales numbers, but margins took a hit, down to 5% from 10% YoY. Tax credits are also going away, which boosted sales this quarter.

IBM 0.00%↑:

• EPS: $2.65

• Revenue: $16.33 billion (+9% YoY)

• Takeaway: Strong beat on both top and bottom lines, with AI and mainframes leading, but slowing cloud momentum raises potential concerns.

INTC 0.00%↑:

• EPS: $0.23 (non-GAAP)

• Revenue: $13.7 billion (+3% YoY)

• Takeaway: Execution is improving and they beat expectations, but guidance was cautious.

Despite this crazy earnings week, we are specifically interested in: V 0.00%↑, META 0.00%↑, MSFT 0.00%↑, CVNA 0.00%↑, AAPL 0.00%↑, NET 0.00%↑, and COIN 0.00%↑.

Tuesday, October 28: Consumer Confidence

Wednesday, October 29: Prelim Wholesale Inventories, FOMC

Thursday, October 30: Advance GDP Q/Q, FOMC Logan Speaks

Friday, October 31: Core PCE, Personal Income Spending, and Chicago PMI

📈 Market Update: As of Friday, Oct 24

SPY 0.00%↑:

Last week, we discussed how we were in a range from the soybean tariff announcement from Trump. A break to either side gives us directional trades to enter.

That’s exactly what played out last week. I expect more chop heading into FOMC before the next major leg higher. November is historically bullish, and this final week of October could be laying the groundwork for an explosive move up.

What needs to happen: We get in line or even above expectations from big tech earnings, a muted or dovish Fed post-rate cut, and a resolution to the trade deal between the US & China. These factors lining up would answer a lot of uncertainty the market has.

Bitcoin:

This messy price action on the weekly time frame shows you how volatile things have been. The wicks these past 3 weeks show lots of volatility but the closes show the weekly EMAs are relatively still being respected. Nonetheless, we are seeing a pretty nice bounce off the previous ATH spot near 109k.

A reclaim of the weekly 8 EMA can happen this upcoming week, and from there it’s a moonshot to new ATHs through November.