Welcome back to another Weekly Trade Plan with The Dividend Journal! If this is your first time here, great timing. This newsletter is your one stop briefing to stay ahead of the market and step into the week fully prepared.
🎯 Initial Thoughts + TLDR
Markets head into the week with a mix of optimism and caution. On one hand, earnings season is ramping up with relatively positive expectations on performance. On the other, beneath the surface risks are starting to bubble with credit stress in regional banks, U.S. & China trade tension, and a delayed U.S. inflation release.
This week’s plan in a snapshot:
Inflation and banking risk
Market Updates
CRWV 0.00%↑ , AMAT 0.00%↑ , AZN 0.00%↑ , & MU 0.00%↑ on watch this week
📰 Key News to Watch
1. Inflation & Monetary Policy
The U.S. Consumer Price Index for September is delayed (due to the government shutdown) and now expected this week on Friday, October 24. Analysts expect 3.1% YOY.
If inflation remains sticky, the Federal Reserve may stay hawkish which will weigh on growth and high‑valuation tech names. This data will come just five days before the October FOMC meeting. We are currently still expecting two more cuts to close off the year, one in October and one in December. If inflation comes in low, we might see relief and a rotation back to growth and risk assets.
2. Banking / Credit Risk
Credit concerns in regional banks are emerging with both Zions Bancorp and Western Alliance Bancorp stock tumbling after disclosure of fraud on loans.
Credit stress can potentially trigger broader risk off moves and can be a early warning sign of cracks beginning to appear.
3. U.S. & China Geopolitical Risk
The upcoming Chinese Communist Party plenum (Oct 20‑23) is setting the stage for China’s next five year plan which is expected to double down on domestic innovation and security. This can have implications on the tech and rare earth metals that the US trades with China.
Despite the recent calming tone, there is always the possibility of the narrative being flipped into more tension amongst the two countries.
4. Earnings Heat‑Up
Overall, the market is anticipating better earning reports this time around. Any changes in guidance or margin surprises could trigger large moves to either direction.
We are highly interested in KO 0.00%↑, NFLX 0.00%↑, TSLA 0.00%↑, IBM 0.00%↑, andINTC 0.00%↑.
See below for the whole earnings calendar ↓
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