Weekly Watchlist Nov 24: Turkey Day + Short Week
Welcome back to another Weekly Trade Plan with The Dividend Journal! If this is your first time here, great timing. This newsletter is your one stop briefing to stay ahead of the market and step into the week fully prepared.
đŻ Initial Thoughts + TLDR
The market continues to whipsaw with very volatile price action and despite the indices being only down 4% to 5%, individual names in the market have been decimated. I still think we have yet to see a capitulation selling day, which could imply there is more downside in the near future. If this holds true, we might have to wait until early next year for strong upwards momentum. Despite NVDAâs strong ER, the company wasnât able to put the market on its shoulders as the gap up was sold off. When great news still canât prop up the market, thatâs when you know longs are not favorable.
NVDA 0.00%â Dominance:
Revenue: USâŻ$57.0âŻbillion for the quarter, +62%âŻYoY and up 22%âŻsequentially
Data Center segment: USâŻ$51.2âŻbillion, +66%âŻYoY, up ~25%âŻQoQ
Gross margin (GAAP): 73.4% this quarter (versus 72.4% prior quarter, 74.6% a year ago).
Assuming all is in good faith, I donât think anyone can really doubt the Nvidia growth and AI demand after we keep getting strong numbers. AI infrastructure demand seems to be surging as Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang declared âBlackwell sales are off the charts, and cloud GPUs are sold out.â An interesting perspective is that NVDAâs net income of $31.8 billion has now exceeded Intel and AMDâs net income COMBINED revenue of $8.9 billion.
Despite smashing earnings out of the park, this weekâs stock market action is a great representation of how strong quarterly performance does not equate to the same market performance.
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Key Earnings & Economic Calendar
Tuesday, November 25: PPI & Retail Sales, CB Consumer Confidence
Wednesday, November 26: Core PCE, Durable Goods Orders
Thursday, November 27: Happy Turkey Day!
Friday, November 28: US Markets Close 1PM EST
Courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
đ Market Update: As of Friday, Nov 14
After a tumultuous week, we have now seen consecutive days with closes under the daily 50 EMA. To me, this signals a potential huge sentiment shift. After Thursdayâs crazy selloff after NVDA 0.00%ââs ER giving us a nice gap up, it seems like we might chop in this huge range. The action where we broke the upper side could just be seen as a failed breakout now.
A close under the October 10 Trump Tariff daily candle will lead to a lot more downside for the markets as a whole. Going into December, I am playing it very cautious and not jumping headfirst into large swings. We need to clear out of this zone with certainty for confirmation of a range break (to either direction).
Bitcoin
Crypto has honestly just been in a freefall with no clear signs of buyers taking over. We likely will see lower in the next couple weeks before we find some support. While this seems gloomy, I think it would be dumb to not try buying some Bitcoin if we reach 40k-60k.
đ What Iâm Watching
This name continues to be at the top of my watchlist going into the end of the year with this massive weekly base forming. Confirmation of this breakout is a weekly close over 241.8 and will likely need more a lot time and consolidation. The larger the base, the bigger the breakout!
After a nasty gap down post earnings, this name has been relatively weak. A break under $307.46 is what I am watching closely as an entry to the short side. I would be then targeting a break down of $300 to target recent lows of $285.
The $307.46 level is important because that has held up well for the past two weeks as decent support. This trade will need a daily close under as confirmation to avoid any intraday sweeps.
đClosing Thoughts
I will continue with being more hands off and taking small sized day trades or one night swings. These moments are great reminders of the fact that you donât have to trade every day. The market will never have the setup you are looking for every single day. Seeing how we are near the holidays anyways, itâs a great moment for less screen time and take care of other things in life. There is no point in burning money trying to force a trade that the market isnât willing to give.