Weekly Watchlist Nov 17: NVDA ER & PMI
Will NVDA save the market this week?
Welcome back to another Weekly Trade Plan with The Dividend Journal! If this is your first time here, great timing. This newsletter is your one stop briefing to stay ahead of the market and step into the week fully prepared.
🎯 Initial Thoughts + TLDR
The market’s most recent pullback last week doesn’t seem to be that heavily driven by a collapse from fundamentals. It was more-so a combination of profit taking as well as some fear because of the lack of economic data due to the government shutdown. All eyes will be on NVDA for their ER on Wednesday after market close. Besides the FOMC minutes and PMI, NVDA’s report will likely heavily influence the direction of the market to close out the week.
This week’s plan in a snapshot:
NVDA Earnings
Watching Fed notes & PMI
XOM & AZN on watchlist
📅 Key Earnings & Economic Calendar
Wednesday, November 19: FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thursday, November 20: Non-Farm Employment Change & Unemployment Rate
Friday, November 21: PMI
Key Earnings to Watch: $HD, $TGT, $PANW, $WMT, and $NVDA
Courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
📈 Market Update: As of Friday, Nov 14
$SPY
We managed to create a nice bounce off the daily 50EMA, but then a pretty nasty rejection mid-week. This has now brought us all the way back down the daily 50 EMA again. This level is key to hold (purple line) and is the last of defense for this uptrend. A daily close under this level will represent a drastic change in sentiment.
Bitcoin
I wish I could give a happier update but the weekly on crypto does not look pretty. The EMAs are starting to curl downwards and we are slated to close under the weekly 50EMA. This is representative of a character shift and does not bode well for cryptocurrencies in the near future. Unless some catalyst reverses the sentiment, we likely have seen crypto top for now.
🔍 What I’m Watching
$XOM:
Very nice weekly base forming with a daily hammer close on Friday. There is a small gap fill from 119.89 to 120.52 but past that is clear skies to new ATHs.
Trade Plan: 1/16 125C over 119.75 targeting 125+
$AZN
Super strong Pharma name that I will be watching for a continuation move or a pullback to retest to 85.82 breakout spot. I’d be using the January contracts but will have to see which side the name decides to go towards.
Mental Reset
Because there has been so much profit taking in the markets on risk on assets, these moments are great times to reset your mental and just focus on preparing for when things shape up again. There’s no point in trying to force trades or force your belief on what the market should do.
You have to remember that your bias has no influence on what the market decides to do. It will continue to be irrational and move in whatever direction it’d like. It will do so until it breaks your mental and that’s when things inevitably begin to turn around.
Take time off, and rehash the basics and your discipline in trading. After all, we trade so we can have more time to do other things in life. In moments where the market is at a lull, it’s nice to actually enjoy the other things in life.
📝Closing Thoughts
I will likely be very hands off this week and mainly just observing. NVDA’s earnings report combined with Fed meeting minutes and PMI this week are all going to be heavy hitters for dictating where the market goes. As things have slowed down a bit economically, it’s important we get more bullish data and reports this week to show that demand has not slowed down.