Weekly Watchlist Dec 08: FOMC + Quad Witching

Are you ready for a CRAZY week in the market?

Welcome back to another Weekly Trade Plan with The Dividend Journal! If this is your first time here, great timing. This newsletter is your one stop briefing to stay ahead of the market and step into the week fully prepared.

🎯 Initial Thoughts + TLDR

All eyes this week will be on FOMC Wednesday afternoon, where we are expected to get our last rate cut of the year. Last Friday’s November Jobs Report (released Dec 6) came in juuust in the middle. This boosted the market’s confidence of the Fed’s “goldilocks” scenario where the economy is slowing but not crashing.

Looking ahead, the market is currently anticipating four rate cuts in 2026 (starting as early as March). The last FOMC meeting of the year is going to be super important because Chairman Powell should be able to give us more insight how fast the rate cuts will occur in 2026. In a way, an indication of faster rate cuts may depict an economy that is in need of help.

IWM 0.00%↑ is also looking to breakout to brand new ATHs, which is supplemented by rate cuts. Small cap names are more rate sensitive but we are starting to see a rotation. Breadth is also improving, where more of the market is participating in the recent recovery. Keep in mind though, small caps will thrive in the goldilocks scenario that the Fed is trying to create, but not a collapsing economy. This is because of looser financial conditions from lower rates and improved growth outlooks.

This Friday, December 13 is also quad witching. This is where stock index futures, options, stock options, and single-stock futures expire simultaneously. Expect lots of volatility and rotations especially in the last hour of market on Friday.

📅 Key Earnings & Economic Calendar

Tuesday, December 09: ADP Employment Change & JOLTS

Wednesday, December 10: FOMC

Thursday, December 11: Unemployment Claims

Courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

📈 Market Update: As of Friday, Dec 05

SPY 0.00%↑

We managed to break out and continue the rally post kill candle. And while we didn’t get a Zweig thrust, we still had pretty healthy market wide participation in this rally. Given how we closed on Friday, the market as a whole looks worse on the daily than the weekly time frame. The daily shows us some pretty heavy selling and a pullback Friday.

Meanwhile, the weekly shows a really nice range break with the weekly closing just at the previous rejection spot. This is fitting, given that FOMC is this week and quad witching. We will probably going to see either an attempt of a weekly breakout and continuation or a rejection back in the huge zone we’ve been trading in.

Bitcoin

Crypto has tried to make a bounce back but is currently still struggling a bit. I think if we see any aggressive pushes to either the upside or downside might be an early indication of what the stock market will do. Make sure to keep an eye on this throughout the week when the regular session of the market is not active.

IWM 0.00%↑

The weekly on IWM is absolutely beautiful. We have a large volume sell off 3 weeks ago that ends up closing as a doji. And then, we print a morning star pattern and continuation this past week to test the highs. With a rate cut incoming and more knowledge on 2026 rate cuts, small cap names should definitely be on your watchlist for breakouts.

🔍 What I’m Watching

IBM 0.00%↑: This name was on the watchlist last week and is back up. The weekly closed as an inside week and still respecting the 309 resistance spot. The next two weeks will likely dictate the direction of this and if we get a real breakout. A push past 309 with daily closes over will definitely open the doors to new ATH territory.

JPM 0.00%↑: The weekly on this bank shows a three month base forming just under 316. GS 0.00%↑ this past week along with C 0.00%↑ already broke out to new ATHs and given the current market conditions, I expect JPM 0.00%↑ to play some catch up.

LMND 0.00%↑: This is my top watch for a smaller cap company long. With a fantastic PEG, and volume increasing as we approach the top of the range, this name looks primed to breakout soon. With IWM 0.00%↑ looking to have a continuation in its uptrend as well, we can see a hefty push to new ATHs on Lemonade.

📝Closing Thoughts

This week is going to be a pivotal week in deciding on how we close the year off. With the last FOMC of the year, to quad witching we are going to have yet another exhilarating week in the market. I think it’s also important to note that December is the month of profit keeping not risk taking. There’s no point in trying to chase crazy runners with the risk of ruining your year’s equity curve.

It’s ever important in this environment to be adapt fast, and stay in only the strongest names.