🔔Week Overview: Spooky Season!
It certainly has been an interesting October spooky season so far. The market is far from spooked, making new ATHs and with some very nice catalysts coming up to fan the flames of upward momentum.
Aside from Fed Speakers Monday and Tuesday, here’s what you need to be looking out for this week:
Wednesday 10/23: Existing Home Sales 10AM
Thursday 10/24: Unemployment Claims 8:30AM & PMI 9:45AM
Friday 10/25: Durable Goods 8:30AM
We are also in full earnings season mode, with NFLX 0.00%↑ kicking us off strong last week beating expectations.
The most notable earnings this week are:
Tuesday: ENPH 0.00%↑
Wednesday: TSLA 0.00%↑, IBM 0.00%↑, T 0.00%↑, BA 0.00%↑, KO 0.00%↑
Thursday: AAL 0.00%↑ , UPS 0.00%↑
Courtesy of Earnings Whispers, here’s the complete list of ER’s this week:
Position Updates
I think one of the most satisfying things to do is being bullish on fundamentally sound companies that have room for growth and coming back months later to see the stock price react positively.
In August, I bought the dip on AAPL 0.00%↑, CMG 0.00%↑, and NVDA 0.00%↑ here:
Here’s how those positions are playing out:
To me, this feels like the perfect example of time in the market vs timing the market. The stock market for the most part in the short term is run on emotions and algos reacting to news. Instead of trying to get the perfect bottom entry or take profit at the very top, buy time and let things play out. In August, Japan rate hikes sparked worry of liquidity leading to the decline in US markets. Two months later, we are far from that point as a market.
Bitcoin is also now beginning to curl up from the aftereffects of its halving for rewards of mining. From a weekly time frame perspective, you can see below that price is beginning to peak out of its bull flag consolidation. The longer the consolidation always means the more explosive the move will be. I projected end of Q4 2024/beginning of Q1 2025 as peak of Bitcoin for this cycle, and we are now beginning to move favorably to that thesis.
We are looking for a weekly close up here, and I really strongly believe we will see new ATHs very soon.
Market Shenanigans
DRUG 0.00%↑ is up over 3700% in one week 🤯
Bright Minds Biosciences went from a market cap of $14 million to over $170 million. Many investors are seeing this move happen because of a short squeeze, which is where option traders are forced to cover their shorts by buying the stock. It’s funny because Bright Minds Biosciences is still in pre-revenue and haven’t brought a single drug to the market yet.
NFLX 0.00%↑ ended up closing 11% on Friday after beating earnings and guiding up revenue in 2025.
EPS: $5.4 vs $5.12 expected
Revenue: $9.83 billion vs $9.77 billion expected
I think a very interesting data point is that the company stated their ad-tiered subscription accounted for more than half of new sign ups in the countries where it’s available. Netflix currently projects 11% to 13% revenue growth in 2025 vs their 2024 performance of $38.9 billion. This performance is more than satisfactory considering the risk the company took with bringing content creation in-house.
It’s very possible we see Netflix compete more with other market participants in closing deals for live events and sports organizations. This would round out the business very well after finding consistency in their current content production.