🔔Week Overview: Earnings Season Heats Up
And is this just the start of the Crypto run?
We just had the worst losing week since April 2024. But, to put into perspective, we’re still up +10% since March 1st. With SPY 0.00%↑ at $512 on March 1st and Friday’s close at putting us at $549.
Here’s a recap of what happened:
On Monday, 7/15: Powell spoke and reassured that the Fed will not wait until inflation is at 2% before cutting interest rates. He also reaffirmed that a hard landing for the economy is “not likely.” However, Powell still has not given any indication on when the first rate cut will be. The next policy meeting for the Fed will be July 30 - July 31.
On Thursday, 7/18 NFLX 0.00%↑’s results yielded a pretty flat reaction from the market and closed down 1.5% on Friday.
Earnings per share: $4.88 vs. $4.74 per share expected
Revenue: $9.56 billion vs. 9.53 billion expected
Total memberships: 277.65 million global paid memberships vs. 274.4 million expected
This was the third to last quarter Netflix will report subscribers, wanting investors to focus more on their margins and revenue growth. Netflix actually adjusted their full year outlook on revenue growth to 14%-15% instead of 13%-15%. A small amount but the good news is that revenue is growing because their average paid membership is increasing.
My perspective: I think there were too high of expectations for Netflix’s performance. Netflix will continue to grow but the rampant growth that Wall Street is expecting may be a thing of the past now. It will be interesting to see how the market reacts to 2025 quarterly reports without subscriber numbers.
On Friday, 7/19 Crowdstrike pushed out a security update that disrupted global services in industries like banks, hospitals, and airlines.
As a result, CRWD 0.00%↑ stock closed down 11% on the day. Personally, I tried to buy shares and leap option contracts on Crowdstrike but my broker Charles Schwab was down because of the security update. Fundamentally, the company has not changed and will recuperate this loss in their stock price. I will be looking to add this upcoming week.
We also saw a continuation of rotation to small cap stocks during the week with IWM 0.00%↑ hitting a peak of around $225/share.
Bitcoin jumped to over $62,000 after the assassination attempt of Donald Trump with a continuation into Friday going up to a peak of around $67,500. As a result, while the rest of the market was red, COIN 0.00%↑ went up about 10% on the day. It’s important to note that the Bitcoin conference will be this week from 7/25 to 7/27. Also, Donald Trump is scheduled to speak at the conference.
Earnings Coming Up:
Tuesday, 7/23
GOOGL 0.00%↑ , TSLA 0.00%↑ , V 0.00%↑ , KO 0.00%↑ , SPOT 0.00%↑, ENPH 0.00%↑, UPS 0.00%↑
Wednesday, 7/24
WM 0.00%↑ , IBM 0.00%↑ , NOW 0.00%↑, CMG 0.00%↑, F 0.00%↑, T 0.00%↑
Thursday, 7/25
Friday, 7/26
If you want a list of all the companies reporting, click here!
Other News:
Wednesday, 7/24
PMI
Thursday, 7/25
GDP, Unemployment Claims
Friday, 7/26
Core PCE
With a heavy earnings week, plus data that can influence our economy, it’s important to be cautious this week if you are actively trading in the market. I project that if we get similar reactions to Tuesday’s tech earnings and then Wednesday PMI data, that will give clarity on which direction the market will move. From there, the stock market will be reacting to GDP and core PCE and then anticipation for an even more jam packed earnings schedule next week.
🏃Crypto on the move
As crypto continues to spike in price, I’d like to bring attention to the Halving Cycle tendencies. It usually takes about a whole year after the actual halving before we start to see supply shocks causing a boom in prices.
From my perspective, it seems that we are most likely approaching the tail end of the accumulation zone. I anticipate a peak in Crypto prices in Q1 of 2025, which will be a good time to begin taking profits.
Kevin O’Leary, Mr. Wonderful, puts it together very well: “The whole point is, you don’t know who is going to win. Is Ethereum going to win? Is Solana going to win? Is it Helium or is it Avalanche? I own them all.”
Even though the majority of coins move in tandem, it’s better to spread out your risk in case one particular coin increases in price more exponentially than another. Here are my top holdings in order: ETH, AVAX, SOL, FTM, MATIC, XRP. Of course, there are other small market cap coins that can definitely yield more returns like PALMAI, TYPE, or ICP.
Always remember to never invest more than you’re willing to lose!