8/18 Weekly Trade Plan
What to watch out for this upcoming week in the market
Welcome to my weekly trading prep for the upcoming week in the stock market.
Here is the economic red folder action to watch out for:
Wednesday - FOMC minutes, released at 1PM EST
Thursday - Unemployment claims 7:30PM EST and Flash PMI at 8:45AM EST
Friday - Jackson Hole Symposium where Powell will speak at 9AM EST
All bets are still leaning towards a rate cut in September and then most likely one more before the end of 2025. I am actually leaning bullish on the upcoming week as I believe the market can push into Jackson Hole in anticipation of hints towards a September rate cut from Powell.
Courtesy of Earnings Whispers, here are the upcoming earnings to watch out for:
I’m most interested in PANW 0.00%↑, HD 0.00%↑, WMT 0.00%↑, TGT 0.00%↑, WDAY 0.00%↑, and ZM 0.00%↑.
A lot of retail companies are reporting this week, which will provide some insight on how consumers have been behaving how they will continue to act. This will further solidify expectations for this year’s rate cuts, reinforced by the most recent economic data we’ve gotten.
Crypto Divergence
Interestingly enough, Bitcoin has been relatively weaker when compared to Ethereum.
Although Bitcoin managed to tap a new ATH at around $125k, it got quickly rejected. Ethereum has done quite the opposite, as price now creeps towards ATH levels at around $4867 and holding quite well.
The X factor this crypto cycle is that we have institutional investors flooding the market with money now. Will we really have intense pullbacks like we have in the past? It’s hard to imagine that will happen given there are now ETFs for both Bitcoin and Ethereum. Crazier things have happened in the market, so the possibility of the textbook deep pullback in the crypto cycle is definitely not 0%.
Here’s an interesting theory from Orion on X: Ethereum beginning to outperform Bitcoin is usually an indicator of an upcoming top. If this aligns with how the cycle always works, we should begin to see large caps like Solana, AVAX, and LINK begin to inflate in price. When the alt coins begin to go parabolic, that’s probably a good signal to start taking profit and not get greedy.
Names On Watch
4 inside weeks with volume beginning to increase as price curls. The key is to see a high volume push past 16.34, targeting 18.32 and then 20 as final PT. The contract I’m eyeing to take is the 9/19 20C.
The contention price level is 93.60, and I need to see a strong daily close above to be convinced that price wants to try to continue. The recent high of 97.72 can be seen as an attempted breakout that eventually failed.
The reaction of earnings was pretty muted and price held up well at this highs, which presents the potential opportunity to push price for another leg up. A healthy close above 93.60, I’m looking to enter the 9/19 95C to target 97.72 and then the mental number 100 area.
Really nice Post Earnings Gap (PEG) presented here. We see a strong gap up post-earnings and these new highs being defended by buyers. These PEGs indicate that buying is likely not done. I’m looking to enter the 9/19 60C on a break past Friday’s highs at 60.50. Because this is a recent IPO name, these price discovery moments can be explosive. I want to first target the 68 level and play it by ear from there.
This is a hot quantum name on the weekly timeframe, with a really nice flag brewing. With earnings out the way, this name can explode past recent ATHs of 21.42 if the market can get some follow through. I’m aiming to enter the 10/17 20C on a break past 17.52 to target 21.42 and then 25. I think October’s will be better because the consolidation is on the weekly timeframe. It gives enough room for the name to breathe without having that time pressure of September contracts.
Another post earnings name that has a nice base developing. The key level to watch for is past 16.36, but there is also a pretty heavy volume wall near 17. The timing on an entry on this name has to be precise as it can easily gap and go.
A popular Pelosi stock, the weekly timeframe shows that this name hasn’t really done much since its inception. I’m looking for some follow through past 75 to target around 83 as first PT. It’s not the cleanest chart in my opinion, but the high buy volume is something you can’t ignore. If this gets momentum, it can easily test ATHs and push towards 100+.
Thank you for prepping for the upcoming week in the stock market with me! I think August still has some juice left to the upside, but it’s hard to deny that clean setups are beginning to become thin. This aligns with the market’s seasonality with September being relatively bearish. We can’t time it perfectly, so we can only trade what the market gives us.